收入差距、财政政策波动性与经济增长
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| Title | Income Inequality, Fiscal Policy Volatility and Economic Growth
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| 作者 | 王立勇 欧阳日辉 范亚舟 |
| Author | Wang Liyong, Ouyang Lihui and Fan Yazhou |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | liyongecon@gmail.com；ouyangcass@163.com；yzperfect@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 收入差距 财政政策 波动性 经济增长 |
| Key Words | Income inequality; Fiscal policy; Volatility; Economic growth |
| 内容提要 | 本文基于中国1978-2010年数据，运用BP滤波、Spline回归和GMM等方法对收入差距影响经济增长的新渠道—财政政策波动性渠道进行了研究。研究结果表明，收入差距对财政政策周期性波动有显著的正影响，收入差距越大，财政政策波动性越明显；而财政政策波动性对经济增长存在显著的负影响，财政政策波动性越大，越不利于经济增长。这充分说明，财政政策波动性渠道确实能够解释收入差距对经济增长的负面影响。在此基础上，本文对这一影响机理进行了解释。与此同时，本文还发现，人均国民收入水平、经济开放度等指标与财政政策波动性负相关；人口增长率对经济增长的影响为负，说明过多的人口降低了人均可用资本，降低了人均资本积累，从而降低经济增长。而人力资本、市场化程度、投资等变量对经济增长产生显著的正向影响。最后本文给出相关的政策建议。 |
| Abstract | The paper analyzes a new influential channel of income inequality on economic growth, that is the fiscal policy volatility channel, with methods of BP filter, Spline regression and GMM. The results show that the effect of income inequality on fiscal policy volatility is significantly positive, the effect of fiscal policy volatility on economic growth is significantly negative, Which means that the fiscal policy volatility channel can really provide explanations for the negative effects of income inequality on economic growth. Some explanations about such relationship are given in this paper. The results also show that some factor, such as real GDP per capita, government size, economic openness, have negative effects on fiscal policy volatility. Such factors as human capital, market degree and investment have positive effects on economic growth, while the effect of population growth on economic growth is negative. |
| 文章编号 | WP353 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-08-31 |
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