不完全信息、生产滞后与生猪价格周期
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| Title | Incomplete Information、Production Lag and The Pig Price Cycle
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| 作者 | 燕志雄 |
| Author | Yan Zhixiong |
| 作者单位 | 暨南大学产业经济研究院 |
| Organization | Institute of Industrial Economics, Jinan University |
| 作者Email | yzxinshanghai@sina.com |
| 中文关键词 | 生猪周期 生产滞后 不完全信息 价格预期 |
| Key Words | Pig Cycle; Production Lag; Incomplete Information; Price Expectation |
| 内容提要 | 为什么生猪价格经常呈现周而复始的周期性波动？大多数学者认为，蛛网定理可以解释生猪周期现象。然而，正如Coase为代表的经济学家所批评的，这个简单的模型并不适用生猪周期。首先，在一个完全信息的世界中，养殖户的行为假定很不合理或很不现实。其次，生猪生产，除了生猪繁育与育肥阶段之外，还包括生猪产能的调整阶段。考虑到信息的不完全性与生猪生产的滞后性，养殖户可能不得不接受当前与以往价格加权平均的价格预期。本文证明了，当市场状况发生变化时，这种不准确的价格预期必定导致生猪价格的周期性波动。而且，周期长度取决于养殖户价格预期的具体形式。更进一步，本文证明了，如果政府可以及时地选择一组及时合适的干预政策，而不是局限于某个单一政策，那么政府可以平抑（或减弱）市场失灵所导致的生猪周期。 |
| Abstract | Why does a cycle of fluctuation in the pig price recur? Mostly scholars think that the “cobweb theorem” can explain the phenomenon of pig cycle. However, as if Coase, as a representative of economist, criticizes that the simple model could not be applied to the pig cycle. Firstly, the behavior assumption of the farmers isn’t consistent with reality or isn’t reasonable in a complete information world; Secondly, the production of pig includes the stage of adjusting the capacity except for the stage of breeding and fatting up. Consider the lag of the pig production and the constraint that market information is incomplete, the pig farmers could have to accept the price expectation that is a weight average of previous and present pig price. This paper show when the market situation changes, the inaccurate price expectation must lead to the cycle in the price fluctuation of pig. What’s more, the length of cycle depends on the particular forms of price expectation. Furthermore, this paper show that the government can well smooth out (or reduce) the fluctuation of the cycle in the price of pig which the market failure lead to, if it choose a group of timely and reasonable policies but not single intervention policy. |
| 文章编号 | WP341 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-08-22 |
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