边际消费倾向时变性、省域投资乘数差异与产业结构升级
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| Title | Time Variation of Marginal Propensity to Consume Regional Difference of Investment Multiplier and Industrial Structure Upg
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| 作者 | 徐春华 刘力 |
| Author | Xu Chunhua and Liu Li |
| 作者单位 | 广东外语外贸大学国际经济贸易学院 |
| Organization | School of International Trade and Economics, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies |
| 作者Email | xuchunhua1986@126.com，gwdll@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 边际消费倾向 投资乘数 产业结构升级 |
| Key Words | Marginal Propensity to Consume; Investment Multiplier; Industrial Structure Upgrading |
| 内容提要 | 我国居民消费的地区差异与时点易变性通过投资乘数的传导效应，对地区产业结构升级产生不同效果。通过对1991-2010年的省域面板数据研究后发现，投资乘数在总体上对第二产业有显著的正向影响，而在第三产业中则不但作用力度小得多而且不显著。进一步的研究显示，不仅投资乘数在东、中、西部三大区域依次递增，且其对产业结构升级的作用机制随着经济发展水平的提高而呈现出从第二产业逐渐作用到第三产业的“高级化”变动态势，由此促使产业结构升级。本文的发现对理解消费对产业结构升级的影响和制定产业结构升级政策都有重要启示。 |
| Abstract | The regional difference and time variation of Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) of consumption exerts an influence on industrial structure upgrading by means of investment multiplier. Using a provincial panel data, this paper gets the results that the investment multiplier has significant and positive effect on secondary industry while not significant and much smaller influence on tertiary industry generally. Further researching shows that the investment multiplier not only presents an increasing tendency as crossing east area、middle area and west area successively, but also shows an advanced trend that this impact is significant from secondary industry to tertiary industry gradually as the economy grows, and it is this trend that promotes industrial structure upgrading. These findings have significant enlightenment on the understanding of effect on industrial structure upgrading from consumption and decision making of industrial structure upgrading. |
| 文章编号 | WP286 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-06-29 |
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