我国增长型经济周期的量化研究及波动态势分析
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| Title | Growth Cycle Tracking and Quantification in China
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| 作者 | 刘金全 庞春阳 |
| Author | Liu Jinquan and Pang Chunyang |
| 作者单位 | 吉林大学数量经济研究中心 |
| Organization | Center for Quantitative Economics,Jilin University |
| 作者Email | jqliu1964@yahoo.com.cn；chunyang.pang@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | 增长型经济周期 多元谱分析 协动性 合成指标 |
| Key Words | Growth Cycle; Multivariate Spectral Analysis; Comovement; Composite Indicators |
| 内容提要 | 本文利用结构时间序列模型和多元谱分析方法，通过综合对比多个宏观经济指标与实际产出序列各自周期性成分在不同波动频率上的协动性，构建合成指标体系，并在此基础上以一致指标为基准、领先指标为参照，对我国增长型经济周期波动态势进行了跟踪与预测。结果表明，自1996年以来我国经济发展共经历了四轮完整的经济周期，平均持续期为3.5年。当前宏观经济正处于新一轮周期的收缩通道中，并仍将在年内继续延续这一波动态势，宏观经济政策仍应保持稳健而慎用刺激性措施，促进经济结构调整和转变的有序进行。 |
| Abstract | Instead of using econometric models in the time domain, this paper implores the comovement of the cyclical components in multiple economic indicators and real GDP with resort to structural time series models and multivariate spectral analysis, and then constructs composite indicators based on previous results. By using coincidence indicator as a benchmark and leading indicator as a reference, we track and forecast growth cycles in China. As indicated in the empirical results, China’s economy has undergone 4 rounds of complete cycles since 1996, with the average duration for each cycle for about 3.5 years. The macro economy is currently in and will still stay in the stage of contraction in 2012. In order to prompt economic transition, the authorities should still stick to then stance of prudent policy combinations and be cautious to using stimulative measures. |
| 文章编号 | WP281 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-06-20 |
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