中国的粮价上涨在趋稳吗？——基于结构性突变时态转换模型的研究
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| Title | Has China’s grain price growth become more stable?--An investigation based on structural break regime switching model
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| 作者 | 吕捷 朱信凯 |
| Author | Lu Jie and Zhu Xinkai |
| 作者单位 | 中国人民大学 |
| Organization | Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | lujie@ruc.edu.cn；zxk@ruc.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 粮食价格 趋稳拐点 结构性突变 |
| Key Words | Food Price; Stabilizing Point; Structural Break Regime Switching |
| 内容提要 | 长期以来粮食价格作为“百价之基”对我国社会整体物价水平以及国民经济的平稳运行产生着极其重要的影响，正确把握和认识粮食价格的波动规律将有助于制定更加有效的宏观调控政策。近十年来随着中国经济结构的发展以及外部经济环境的变化，中国的粮食价格波动特性与波动规律也发生了较大的变化。本文通过运用结构性突变时态转换模型对中国二十年以来主要粮食品种价格波动特性进行研究，发现粮价的高低增长时态区间在显著缩小，粮食整体价格上涨在趋于稳定，趋稳拐点发生在2004年年初，其中粮食最低收购价政策通过提高农民整体收益预期进而是熨平粮价上涨是最主要的推动因素。 |
| Abstract | As the base price, grain prices have played considerably important role in China’s macroeconomy and social price level. Understanding the price fluctuation rules will help to make more effective macro-control policies. During past two decades the fluctuation characteristics of China’s grain price have experienced a big change. In this study we investigate the fluctuation characteristics of some main kinds of grain in China by using structural break regime switching model. We find that China’s grain price growth has become more stable since 2004. The minimum grain purchase price policy which improves farmers' overall earning expectation and stabilizes food price is the most important motivating factor. |
| 文章编号 | WP278 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-06-04 |
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