汇率逐渐市场化过程中的我国货币政策效应分析
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| Title | The Effect of Gradual Exchange Rate Deregulation on China’s Monetary Policy
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| 作者 | 张翔 何平 |
| Author | Zhang Xiang and He Ping |
| 作者单位 | 清华大学经管学院 |
| Organization | School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University |
| 作者Email | zhangxiang04@mails.tsinghua.edu.cn；heping@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 汇率市场化 货币政策 经济增长 通货膨胀 结构向量自回归 |
| Key Words | Exchange Rate Deregulation; Monetary Policy; Economic Growth; Inflation; Structural Vector Autoregression |
| 内容提要 | “十二五”期间，人民币国际化可能将实现跨越式的发展。人民币国际化的一个重要标志是利率和汇率的逐步市场化，而相应的我国货币政策的有效性也将发生一定的改变。本文利用Sims（1986）提出的结构向量自回归模型，结合了我国经济结构的特征，从汇率逐渐市场化的视角，对人民币逐渐国际化阶段中我国货币政策的有效性进行分析。我们发现，随着汇率的市场化，货币政策对调控通胀以及经济增长的有效性都会增强。我们发现，伴随着汇率市场化，最优的货币政策需要逐渐降低货币政策对通货膨胀的反应力度，但对于经济增长的最优反应力度则随着我们对其关注程度的增加而增强。 |
| Abstract | It can be expected that the RMB internationalization will develop by leaps and bounds during the National Twelfth Five-Year Plan period. The advancement of RMB internationalization will be characterized with deregulation in interest rate and exchange rate, along which the effectiveness of monetary policy will change accordingly. In this paper, applying the structure vector autoregressive model proposed by Sims (1986), featured with the characteristics of China's economic structure, we analyze the effect of exchange rate deregulation on China’s monetary policy. We find that monetary policy will become more effective on inflation control and economic growth. In addition, we find that the optimal monetary policy involves less intense response to inflation. However, the best response to economic growth will increase with our degree of concern increased. |
| 文章编号 | WP211 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-01-17 |
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