中国货币政策的工具规则和目标规则
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| Title | China's Instrument Rules and Targeting Rules of Monetary Policy:
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| 作者 | 郭红兵 陈平 段军山 |
| Author | Guo Hongbing , Chen Ping and Duan Junshan |
| 作者单位 | 广东商学院金融学院；中山大学岭南学院 |
| Organization | Guangdong University of Business Studies；Lingnan college of Sun Yat-Sen University |
| 作者Email | guohongbing666@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 货币政策规则 工具规则 目标规则 |
| Key Words | Monetary Policy Rules; Instrument Rules ; Targeting Rules |
| 内容提要 | 已有的关于中国货币政策规则的研究大都没有反映中国货币政策“多工具，多目标”的现实状况。有鉴于此，本文基于一个广义前瞻性反应函数模型并利用1994Q1-2011Q2中国的宏观经济数据实证比较了五个不同的货币政策工具规则，每个工具规则都以通胀缺口、产出缺口、汇率缺口和货币供应量缺口作为反馈变量，隐含四大目标规则。实证结果表明，五个规则大致反映了我国央行运用不同工具调控不同目标的现实状况，但每种规则都面临“顾此失彼”的困境；五个规则中市场利率规则表现最好，但它具有内在不稳定性。因此，在“多工具，多目标”背景下，我国央行不宜采用单一的货币政策规则，而应该根据面临的经济形势和调控目标做好两个协调配合。 |
| Abstract | The existing researchs on China's monetary policy rules generally does not reflect the “multi-tool, multi-objective”reality of China's monetary policy.For this reason,this paper compares the five different instrument rules of monetary policy empirically based on a generalized forward-looking reaction function model using of China’s macro-data of 1994Q1-2011Q2. Each instrument rule use inflation gap,output gap, exchange rate gap and money supply gap as feedback variables,impliciting the four famous targeting rules. The empirical results show that the five rules reflect the situation largely that China's central bank controls the different objectives using different tools, but each rule are facing a dilemma of “trade-off”,and that the market interest rate rule is the best one in the five rules,but it is not stable inherently.Thus,in the“multi-tool, multi- objective” context,China’s central bank should not adopt a single monetary policy rules,but should do well the two coordination according to the economic situation and control goals. |
| 文章编号 | WP207 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-01-16 |
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