消费信贷影响我国城镇居民消费行为的作用渠道及检验——基于2004-2009年省际面板数据的经验分析
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| Title | The Channel and Test on Impacts of Consumer Credit to Urban Residents Consumption Behavior
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| 作者 | 臧旭恒 李燕桥 |
| Author | Zang xuheng and Li yanqiao |
| 作者单位 | 山东大学消费与发展研究所,山东大学经济学院 |
| Organization | Institute of Consumption and Developing SDU, School of Economics SDU |
| 作者Email | okhere2006@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 消费信贷 消费行为 流动性约束 面板数据 |
| Key Words | Consumer Credit; Consumer Behavior; Liquidity Constraint; Panel Data |
| 内容提要 | 在存在流动性约束与预防性储蓄的消费模型框架下，总结了消费信贷影响我国城镇居民消费行为的作用渠道，并利用我国2004—2009年的省际面板数据对其进行检验。研究结果表明：从总体上讲，消费信贷在一定程度上促进了我国城镇居民的当期消费；然而从消费信贷的作用渠道来看，当前的消费信贷主要缓解了居民当期流动性约束，促进了相关耐用品消费的增长，但消费信贷发展并没有降低我国城镇居民的储蓄压力，其消费保险的功能也没有得到有效发挥。认为过高的“大额刚性支出”成本和未来收支的不确定性是导致消费信贷拉动居民消费的作用效果较弱的主要因素。 |
| Abstract | The channels of impacts of consumer credit to urban residents consumption behavior are summarized under the framework of consumption model with liquidity constraints and precautionary savings, and tests the channels by using China provincial panel data of the period from 2004 to 2009. The results show that: generally speaking, consumer credit promotes the current consumption of urban residents; from the point of channels, the current consumer credit mainly remits the residents’ current liquidity constraints and promotes the consumption of durable goods, but the savings pressure of urban residents hasn’t been reduced and the function of consumption insurance hasn’t been played effectively. This paper argues that the too high cost of large rigid expenditure and uncertainty of future income and expenditure are the main factors that lead to the weak effect of consumer credit to urban residents’ consumption. |
| 文章编号 | WP194 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-01-12 |
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