经济波动的数量分析和竞争政策的稳定机制
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| Title | System Elements in Business Cycles and Stabilizing Effect of Competition Policy
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| 作者 | 李华俊 陈平 |
| Author | Li Huajun and Chen Ping |
| 作者单位 | 复旦大学新政治经济学研究中心 |
| Organization | Center for New Political Economy, Fudan University |
| 作者Email | lyhuajun@163.com,pchen@ccer.pku.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 大数原理 组元分析 群体模型 生灭过程 竞争政策 |
| Key Words | Principle of Large Numbers, System Elements, Population Model, Birth-death Process, Competition Policy |
| 内容提要 | 美国宏观与金融数据的数据分析表明：投资波动的幅度远大于消费和GDP的波动幅度。据此我们猜测，经济波动的主要来源不可能是微观层次的家庭或企业，只能是中间层次的金融中介和产业组织。针对各种理论模型的深入研究和比较，我们发现薛定谔发现的大数原理给分析宏观波动的结构与组元量级提供了理论依据。该理论还可以推广到有增长趋势的生灭过程的群体模型中,以同时理解金融市场的中期内生不稳定性和持续涨落的长期稳定性。通过对以上的数据分析与理论研究总结可知，微观层次的竞争和反垄断政策，将有助于稳定宏观经济。 |
| Abstract | The Principle of Large Numbers first studied by Schr?dinger can be extended to the population model of the birth-death process with growth trend, which is capable of explaining endogenous instability in the medium-term and persistent fluctuations in the log-term observed from macro and finance indexes. The magnitude analysis of system elements reveals the possible source of macro fluctuations. Based on empirical analysis of macro and finance indexes of the U.S. economy, the roots of business cycles are not at the micro level of households or firms, but at the middle level of financial market and industrial organization. That is why the investment fluctuations are much larger than that of consumption and GDP. Competition and anti-trust policy at the micro level has significant stabilizing effect at the macro level.
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| 文章编号 | WP179 |
| 登载时间 | 2012-01-05 |
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