土地供给、住房价格与中国城镇居民储蓄
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| Title | L& Supply, Housing Price & Household Saving in Urban China: Evidence from Urban Household Survey
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| 作者 | 陈斌开 杨汝岱 |
| Author | Chen Binkai and Yang Rudai |
| 作者单位 | 中央财经大学经济学院；中国农村发展研究中心 |
| Organization | Central University of Finance and Economics, Xiangtan University |
| 作者Email | chenbinkai@gmail.com；rudaiyang@gmail.com |
| 中文关键词 | UHS 住房价格 居民储蓄 土地供给 |
| Key Words | UHS; Housing Price; Household Saving; L& Supply |
| 内容提要 | 基于国家统计局城调队中国城镇住户调查（UHS）2002-2007年的微观家户数据，本文研究土地供给、住房价格和居民储蓄的关系。研究结果表明，住房价格上涨使得居民不得不“为买房而储蓄”，提高了居民储蓄率：住房价格上升1个百分点，城镇居民储蓄率将上升0.068个百分点。2002-2007年，住房价格上涨71.7%，本文的结论推断居民储蓄率将上升4.88个百分点，这解释了2002-2007年间我国城镇居民储蓄率上升的64.6%。进一步研究表明，住房价格上涨主要影响收入水平较低、没有住房或住房面积较小的家庭；同时，住房价格对年轻人和老年人的影响较大。以土地供给作为住房价格的工具变量有效缓解了内生性问题，2SLS回归结果表明，土地供给越少，住房价格水平越高，居民储蓄率越高。本文的研究表明，要实现消费需求拉动型内生持续增长，根本出路还在于改革现有财税体制，降低地方政府 对“土地财政”的依赖程度。 |
| Abstract | Based on China's urban household survey (UHS) conducted by National Bureau of Statistics from 2002 to 2007, this paper studies the relationship between government l& supply, housing prices & urban household savings in China. The results reveal that the rising housing prices have induced people to save more: one percentage point increase in housing prices have led urban household savings rate to rise by 0.068 percentage points. These empirical results implies that the household savings rate have risen by 4.88 percentage points due to the rising housing price, which account for 64.6% of the increasing saving rate during 2002 and 2007. Further research shows that the rising housing prices have mainly affected people with lower income levels, rent a house or own a small house. Meanwhile, the housing prices have not only affected the young people, but also the old people. We use government l& supply as an instrument of housing price to alleviate the endogeneity problem. 2SLS regression results show that the less the l& supply, the higher the level of housing prices, the higher the household savings rate. This study implies that, to increase the consumption ratio and achieve sustainable growth in China, the fundamental way is to reform the existing tax system and reduce local government's incentive to create profits from l& supply. |
| 文章编号 | WP173 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-12-31 |
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