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危机冲击与全球贸易“超调”:一个理论分析
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TitleCrisis Shocks and Global Trade Excessive Adjustment: A Theoretical Analysis  
作者戴翔 张二震  
AuthorDai Xiang and Zhang Erzhen  
作者单位南京大学经济学院 
OrganizationSchool of Economics , Nanjing University 
作者Emailaufedx@163.com;zrz@nju.edu.cn 
中文关键词危机冲击 贸易“超调” 生产分割 中间品存货调整 
Key WordsCrisis Shocks; Trade Excessive Adjustment; Production Fragmentation 
内容提要本轮危机冲击下全球贸易出现的“超调”式震荡,难以在需求减弱、信贷萎缩以及贸易保护抬头等传统理论框架下得到正确解释。全球贸易的“超调”式震荡与当前国际分工演进趋势有关。国际生产分割快速发展使得同一产品不同生产环节和阶段日益被分解,以中间需求为表现的产品价值链被延长了。因此,危机冲击下中间产品存货调整效应,会透过中间品顺次需求关系,在整条价值链上产生不断的“放大”效果,最终演化为全球贸易的“超调”式震荡。上述结论,一方面意味着加强合作和交流,才是全球应对危机,促进贸易健康发展进而带动经济发展的有效途径,另一方面意味着不应过分夸大贸易波动可能引发经济波动的程度,从而错失“外向型”发展模式在特定阶段给我国经济发展带来的重要机遇。 
Abstract Global trade excessive adjustment to this round of global crisis shocks can’t be explained by the traditional factors like lumpy demand, crunch of trade finance and trade protectionism. This paper argues that the kind of phenomena is closely related to characteristic of current international labor division. International fragmentation of production has broken the production process of same production into more and more stages, thus, global value chain have been extended. Therefore, the effect of stock adjustment of intermediates will magnify through this value chain and lead to global trade excessive volatility eventually. The above conclusion means that, for one hand, to strengthen cooperation among nations aiming to promote healthy development of trade is the only effective way to cope with crisis shocks and realize recovery of economic growth; on the other hand, we should not exaggerate the negative impact degree of crisis shock on economic development, to the extent that missing the great opportunity for economic development that open-oriented economic development model can bring in certain stage of economic development.  
文章编号WP162 
登载时间2011-12-14 
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