不确定性冲击与中国居民储蓄率动态:1978-2010
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| Title | Uncertainty Shocks and the Dynamics of China’s Household Saving Rate：1978-2010
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| 作者 | 刘尧成 丁剑平 徐晓萍 |
| Author | Liu Yaocheng，Ding Jianping and Xu Xiaoping |
| 作者单位 | 上海财经大学金融学院 |
| Organization | School of Finance, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics |
| 作者Email | limeiay@126.com |
| 中文关键词 | 不确定性冲击 居民储蓄率 利率 存货缓冲模型 |
| Key Words | Uncertainty Shocks; Borrowing Constraints; Interest Rate; Buffer-Stock Model |
| 内容提要 | 介于中国居民因存在借贷约束而在其资产遭受不确定性冲击时无法平滑消费等特定经济事实，本文首先论证指出，作为基准的经济增长模型无法对改革开放以来中国居民储蓄率不断上升等经济现象做出合理解释。在此基础上，本文通过建立一个存货缓冲模型并对其进行扩展，模拟比较了不确定性冲击的不同变化趋势对中国居民储蓄率的动态影响，结果表明逐步增强的不确定性冲击趋势能够较好的拟合1978至2010年居民储蓄率的长短期波动特征。与此同时，该模型还能较好的模拟该样本时段内中国利率的波动。最后，本文推测指出，如果不确定性冲击趋势持续增强，将有可能使得中国居民储蓄率继续走高，并使得中国逐渐步入一种特殊的“零利率”时代。 |
| Abstract | As consumers in China can not smooth their consumption when they suffer to uncertainty shocks because of borrow constraints, we confirm in this article that a standard economy growth model is not proper to explain why China’s household saving rate keeps going up since the reform in the ends of 1970s. Based on this standard model, we construct and extent a buffer-stock model to simulate the fluctuation of China’s household saving rate under different kinds of uncertainty shocks, and we find that the model can simulate the household saving rate during 1978 and 2010 very well when the uncertainty shocks gradually get serious, and at the same time, the model can also be used to simulate the fluctuation of China’s interest rate. Finally, we make a simple prediction that, if the uncertainty shocks keep getting serious in the future, China’s household saving rate may continue going up and a special zeros interest rate period may come to realize. |
| 文章编号 | WP154 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-12-08 |
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