政府公共支出结构与经济增长和波动：理论及证据
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| Title | Composition of Fiscal Expenditure and the Economic Growth and Volatility: Theory and Evidence
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| 作者 | 朱虹 龚六堂 |
| Author | Zhu Hong and Gong Liutang |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学光华管理学院 |
| Organization | Guanghua School of Management, Peking University |
| 作者Email | zhuhong85@pku.edu.cn；ltgong@gsm.pku.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 财政支出结构 经济增长 波动 |
| Key Words | Composition of Fiscal Expenditure; Economic Growth; Volatility |
| 内容提要 | 本文将财政支出结构引入随机增长模型，在理论框架下考察政府不同类型财政支出的增长和波动对经济增长和波动的影响。利用中国1997-2005年省级面板数据，进一步检验我国地方政府财政支出结构对区域经济的增长和波动效应。实证分析发现，与基本建设支出和福利性支出相反，加快地方农业生产性支出和政府维持性支出有利于经济增长。此外，调整基建和农业生产两类生产性支出的波动也是刺激产出的有效财政政策。在平滑地区经济波动上，扩张基本建设支出和缩减农业生产支出的作用较为显著，而调整福利性和政府维持性支出的波动也能够达到熨平经济波动的效果。 |
| Abstract | This paper analyzes the composition of government expenditure in the stochastic growth model to characterize how different types of fiscal expenses effect the economic growth and volatility theoretically. Furthermore, we test the empirical result of regional economy in China using provincial panel data from 1997 to 2005.It is found that, contrary to the fiscal expenditures on infrastructure and welfare, local agricultural and maintenance expenditures are positively associated with economic growth, whereas the adjustment of the volatility of infrastructure and agricultural expense is also an effective fiscal policy to stimulate output for local government. On the side of economic fluctuation, the expansion of expenditure on infrastructure and the reduction of agriculture are more effective on volatility smoothing. Besides, adjusting the maintenance and welfare spending is also good for ironing out the volatility of economy. |
| 文章编号 | WP123 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-09-16 |
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