生猪生产滞后、价格周期与政府干预
阅读全文
下载全文 |
| Title | The Pig Production Lag，Price Expectation and Government Intervention
|
| 作者 | 燕志雄 |
| Author | Yan Zhixiong |
| 作者单位 | 暨南大学产业经济研究院 |
| Organization | Institute of Industrial Economics, Jinan University, Guangzhou |
| 作者Email | yzxinshanghai@sina.com |
| 中文关键词 | 生猪周期 生产滞后 信息不完美 价格预期 |
| Key Words | Pig Cycle; Production Lag; Imperfect Information; Price Expectation |
| 内容提要 | 为什么生猪价格呈现周期性的波动呢？一种以“蛛网定理”而闻名且被农业经济学家普遍接受的观点认为，这主要归因于养殖户假定现有的生猪价格将继续保持不变。然而，正如Coase为代表的经济学家所批评的，蛛网定理并不适用生猪周期。首先，养殖户的这种价格预期假定与现实并不吻合；其次，蛛网定理并不能很好地解释周期长度。考虑到生猪生产的滞后性和信息不完美约束，养殖户可能不得不接受当前与以往价格加权平均值的价格预期。本文证明了，一旦养殖户只能根据当前与以往价格来做生产决策，生猪价格必定呈现周期性的波动，并且周期长度取决于价格预期的具体形式。此外，考虑到政府的信息与能力优势，一组及时合理的干预政策通常可以有效地平抑生猪价格的周期性波动。 |
| Abstract | Why does a cycle of fluctuation in the pig price recur? The view which was known as the “cobweb theorem” and had been commonly held by agricultural economists thinks that this result may be due to the assumption that present prices will continue unchanged in the future. However, as if Coase, as a representative of economist, criticizes that the “cobweb theorem” could not be applied to the pig cycle. Firstly, the assumption of prices expectation isn’t consistent with reality; Secondly, the “cobweb theorem” can’t very well explain the length of the cycle. Consider the lag of the pig production and the constraint that market information is imperfect, the pig farmers could have to accept the price expectation that is a weight average of previous and present pig price. This paper show when the farmers can only make a production decision according to previous and present market price, the cycle in the price fluctuation of pig must recur. What’s more, the length of cycle depends on the particular forms of price expectation. Furthermore, consider the advantage of government’s information and capability, a group of timely and reasonable policies often may efficiently smooth out the fluctuation of the cycle in the price of pig. |
| 文章编号 | WP109 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-08-26 |
|