入世为什么没有使中国的产业结构升级 阅读全文
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Title | Why Didn’t WTO Entry Cause Upgrading of China's Industrial Structure?
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作者 | 刘强 范爱军 |
Author | Liu Qiang and Fan Ai-jun |
作者单位 | 山东大学经济学院 |
Organization | Economic school of Shandong University |
作者Email | sdwflq@126.com |
中文关键词 | 入世 产业结构变化 悖论 原因 |
Key Words | WTO Entry;Upgrading of Industrial Structure;antinomy;causes |
内容提要 | 本文首先用数据和事实证明:与产业结构变动理论以及大多数人的直觉相反,入世并没有使中国的产业结构优化升级,甚至部分省份的实际情况还与产业结构变动理论相悖:入世后,经济增长越快的地区,产业结构升级越慢。产生这种反常现象的原因是什么?本文从理论和实证两个方面进行了深入探讨,认为入世带来的比较优势与规模效应、产业结构变迁对入世的路径依赖和变迁粘性、外商直接投资的流入结构和方向、我国在国际产业分工中的位置以及入世加剧的产业集聚与区域发展不均衡,是导致经济增长与产业结构变动背离的主要原因。随后基于Chow突变点的实证检验和省域差异分析也全面支持了这一结论。文章最后提出了相应的政策建议。 |
Abstract | Opposite to the theory of industrial structure changes and many people’s intuition, WTO Entry has not changed China's shares of three industries. In some provinces, the actual situation even contradicts with the theory. What are the reasons? Based on theoretical and empirical analysis, the main reasons are identified as follows: comparative advantages and the scale effect, path dependence and the inertia of structural changes, FDI inflow, China's position in international industrial division, industrial clustering and unbalanced regional development. The empirical analysis also supports this conclusion. |
文章编号 | WP100 |
登载时间 | 2011-08-10 |
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