我国移动通信产业发展路径区域差异及扩散机制研究
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| Title | Regional Difference and Diffusion Mechanism of Chinese Mobile Telecommunications:
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| 作者 | 罗雨泽 朱善利 陈玉宇 罗来军 |
| Author | Luo Yuze Zhu shanli Chen Yuyu and Luo Laijun |
| 作者单位 | 工业和信息化部电信研究院政策与经济研究所 北京大学光华管理学院 中国人民大学经济学院 |
| Organization | 1. Institute of Policy and Economy Research of MIIT and Guanghua School of Management, Peking University; 2. Guanghua School of Management, Peking University; 3. Economics School, Renmin University of China |
| 作者Email | luoyuze@gsm.pku.edu.cn,laijunluo@163.com |
| 中文关键词 | 移动通信 扩散模型 有效饱和普及率 区域差异 |
| Key Words | Mobile Telecommunications; Diffusion Model; Effective Saturated Penetration; District Difference. |
| 内容提要 | 在我国经济发展的目前阶段，移动通信产业应该在信息化和经济发展过程中扮演越来越重要的支撑作用和基础作用；因为移动通信产业在我国既是新兴产业，又是基础性产业。然而，由于我国经济发展存在着明显的不均衡，与发达国家、新兴工业化国家等相比，我国的移动通信产业如何发展是更为复杂的问题。本文改进了Mansfield模型，通过引入有效饱和普及率，建立渐进可估模型，把理论模型和计量模型更好地结合起来，克服了Harald与Frank（2000）提出的发展过程中饱和参数不可估难题，成功评估了我国不同地区移动通信发展的路径差异，并考察了相应的扩散机制。研究结果表明，投资在该产业起步阶段具有主要作用，而收入、通信资费、城市化水平则是决定最终发展水平的主要因素，要缓解数字鸿沟，须提升中西部对移动通信的有效需求。 |
| Abstract | In the current process of China’s economic development, Mobile telecommunications should play more and more important role since it is both emerging and infrastructure industry. Because there is serious imbalances of economic developments in different regions, compared to its counterparts in developed countries and newly industrializes nations, how to develop China’s mobile telecommunications is a greater challenge. This paper improves Mansfield's model by introducing effective saturated penetration both to better satisfy the need of empirical estimation and to overcome the difficulty of estimating the terminal saturated rate before the end of diffusion by estimating the stage effective saturated rates, and achieves to describe as well as demonstrate the different development paths and related mechanisms of mobile telecommunications in China’s different districts. The study indicates that investment plays a vital role in the starting period, while income, price and citization level determine the final development level. In order to alleviate the Digital Gap, it is vital to increase the effective demand for mobile communications. |
| 文章编号 | WP61 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-03-11 |
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