人民币升值有利于降低中美贸易顺差吗？
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| Title | Can Chinese Yuan Revaluation Decrease the Sino-U.S. Bilateral Trade Surplus?
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| 作者 | 余淼杰 |
| Author | Yu Miaojie |
| 作者单位 | 北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心 |
| Organization | CCER |
| 作者Email | mjyu@ccer.edu.cn |
| 中文关键词 | 汇率传递 双边贸易 引力方程 |
| Key Words | Exchange Rate; Pass-through; Bilateral Trade; Gravity Model |
| 内容提要 | 自2005年7月起，我国放弃人民币对美元的固定汇率制度转而盯住一篮子货币，并对美元升值。本文采用并发展了国际贸易理论中的引力模型，通过使用2002—2007年间的行业面板数据进行实证回归以调查人民币升值对中美双边贸易的影响。多项实证研究结果表明：人民币对美元升值显著地减少了中美贸易顺差额。该发现对于不同计量方法和不同时期的估计均为稳健显著。 |
| Abstract | In 2005, China abated its fixed exchange rate against the U.S. dollar and began to revaluate. This paper investigates the effect of the Chinese Yuan revaluation on the Sino-U.S. bilateral trade based on a theoretical gravity model using industrial panel data during the period 2002-2007. An extensive empirical search shows that the Chinese Yuan revaluation against the U.S. dollar significantly reduced the Sino-U.S. bilateral trade. These findings are robust to different econometric methods and different period coverage. |
| 文章编号 | wp37 |
| 登载时间 | 2011-01-05 |
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