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古代中国的经济增长模式:基于明代(1402-1626)的研究
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TitleEconomic Growth Mode of Ancient China: A Research Based on the Ming Dynasty(1402-1626)  
作者管汉晖 李稻葵  
AuthorGuan Hanhui David Daokui Li  
作者单位北京大学经济学院 清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心,清华大学经济管理学院 清华大学中国与世界经济研究中心 
OrganizationSchool of Economics Peking University; School of Economics and Management,Tsinghua University 
作者Emailguanhh@pku.edu.cn,lidk@sem.tsinghua.edu.cn 
中文关键词明代 经济增长 TFP 
Key Wordsthe Ming Dynasty Economic Development TFP 
内容提要本文在对明代主要经济变量估算的基础上,进一步分析其整体经济的发展状况、效率及其变化趋势,试图由此揭示古代中国的经济增长模式与现代经济的差异。利用明代的产出、土地和劳动力数据,借鉴其他学者对资本产出比例和折旧率的研究与明代积累相结合计算得到的资本存量,本文研究了明代经济增长的要素产出弹性、全要素生产率的变化趋势,在此基础上对经济增长进行了分解,并探讨了明代经济中后期效率下降的原因。计量分析表明,明代经济是规模报酬递减的经济;土地和劳动力的产出弹性分别为57%和36%,资本的产出弹性不到3%;全要素生产率前期较高,比中期增长了4.6%,中后期逐渐下降,后期比中期下降了2.2%;增长分解显示出土地和劳动力的增加解释了明代大部分经济增长。明代经济规模报酬递减的计量分析结论为历史学者认为明代政府行政管理能力较低的观点提供了佐证。资本产出弹性低说明明代中国经济增长模式与现代经济有很大差别,增长的约束主要是劳动力和土地,资本的作用不大,技术进步缓慢。明代中后期效率下降的原因可能是较高的税收加派降低了农业生产效率;政府财政支出主要用于军费、宗藩俸禄以及宫殿陵寝的修建,基础设施建设严重不足;政府对工商业的管制和掠夺扰乱了经济秩序等等。本文对明代的研究对于理解中国古代经济具有一般性。 
AbstractBased on estimation about major macroeconomic variables of the Chinese Ming Dynasty, this article tries to analyze its economic development and efficiency evolvement, thereby research economic growth mode of ancient China and its distinction with modern economy. Using data about output, land and labor in the Ming Dynasty, also calculating capital associating other scholar’s findings on capital-output ratio and capital depreciation rate with total surplus in the Ming Dynasty, we have studied elasticity of factor to output, evolvement of TFP, and then we decomposed economic growth, probed into the cause of slowdown of TFP and economic development in the last two phases of the Ming Dynasty. Empirical results show that the elasticity of land and labor to output are 57% and 36% respectively, the elasticity of capital to output is no less than 3%; TFP in first phase is 4.6 percent higher than in second phase, in last phase it is 2.2 percent lower than in second phase; Decomposition of economic growth indicates that the increases of land and labor account for most economic growth. The empirical result of diminishing returns to scale of the Ming Dynasty’s economy have provided evidence for the view some historians held that there being bad government administration performance in the Ming Dynasty. The low elasticity of capital-output ratio shows that there are remarkable differences between the Ming Dynasty and modern economy, at that time the principal restrictions of economic development are labor and land, and the effects of capital is very little, implying a slow pace of techniques improvement. The causes of slowdown of TFP in the last two phases possibly include that high tax revenue depresses the efficiency of agriculture; most government revenue is used in military expenditure, seignior’s payment and construction of Emperor’s Palace and Tomb, constructions of infrastructure are seriously scarce; government’s regulation and robbing on handcrafts and business disturb economic order and so on. The research about the Ming Dynasty has strong universality on understanding ancient economy of China.  
文章编号WP2 
登载时间2010-10-15 
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